Urban Renewal, Unsustainable Sprawl?
The most recent Freakonomics Quorum on NYTimes.com asked a panel this question: “What will U.S. suburbs look like in 40 years?” Their experts weighed in with thought-provoking and sometimes apocalyptic visions of suburbia’s future, which got us thinking about what the future holds for our own region.
On the one hand, Chattanooga is in the midst of a remarkable story of transformation, garnering media attention around the globe for the 21st Century Waterfront and revitalized in-town neighborhoods. Yet at the same time, our sprawling suburbs are growing just as rapidly in every direction. Is it possible for Chattanooga to sustain these competing ways of life over the next four decades?
Perhaps the most inflammatory prediction offered in the Freakonomics Quorum is this one, by author James Kunstler, who sees suburbia as inherently unsustainable due to its reliance on cheap energy:
“The suburbs have three destinies, none of them exclusive: as materials salvage, as slums, and as ruins.”
He goes on to describe the types of communities that can thrive in the future:
“We will have to return to traditional modes of inhabiting the landscape — villages, towns, and cities, composed of walkable neighborhoods and business districts — and the successful ones will have to exist in relation to a productive agricultural hinterland, because petro-agriculture (as represented by the infamous 3000-mile Caesar salad) is also now coming to an end. Fortunately, we have many under-activated small towns and small cities in favorable locations near waterways. This will be increasingly important as transport of goods by water regains importance.”
This sounds a bit like the Scenic City, doesn’t it? The Tennessee River, already a central figure in Chattanooga’s narrative of renewal, would be well poised to once again serve as a hub for trade. In-town neighborhoods such as Main Street, the North Shore and even St. Elmo are embracing the concept of the walkable urban village where people can live, work and play. There’s even a growing sustainable agriculture movement led by Crabtree Farms. Chattanooga may not be an urban utopia just yet, but a foundation for this type of sustainable future is underway.
Now, what about those pesky suburbs? Outlying communities from Ringgold to Ooltewah to Soddy-Daisy are bursting with new residential developments. Each new subdivision may be a little further from the city but the prospect of a little more house for the dollar still tempts.
How far away will people who must commute to the city (or Enterprise South) for a good job be willing to live? Will the suburbs continue to remain affordable and attractive for all? Jan Brueckner, professor of economics at the University of California, Irvine, says no. But rather than predicting a suburban apocalypse, he believes increased diversity is the future of suburbia:
“If [gentrification] continues in a significant way, large numbers of suburban households looking for urban stimulation may end up switching places with minority central-city dwellers, stirring the ethnic pot in both places.”
The Chattanooga area has seen a growth in diversity over the last decade, and that trend will continue, likely in urban and suburban areas alike. As reported by the Chicago Tribune, the Census Bureau today released population projections that estimate minorities will comprise 54% of our national population by 2050. Where that growth will occur and how those populations will be integrated—or not—is another question facing our city.
The sustainable future isn’t necessarily a question of cities versus suburbs, though, says Alan Berube, research director and fellow at the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. He attempts to reframe the debate altogether:
“… in 40 years perhaps we’ll get beyond our fixation with “the suburbs” (love them or hate them) and develop a richer vocabulary for what lies beyond the city limits.”
No matter whose predictions you find most likely, what’s clear is that the Chattanooga of 2048 will look vastly different than it does today. Ensuring we can still be proud to call this city home will take not only visionary leadership, but informed involvement by each of us.
How do you see Chattanooga changing in the next 40 years—and what are you doing about it?
Photo credit: [phil h]
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